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Exits: Notes on M&A and Venture Capital

Case studies, frameworks, and breakdowns of liquidity events, acquisitions, and IPOs.

December 8, 2025·10 min read

How Do You Value a Pre-Revenue Startup With a Working Product?

Valuing a pre-revenue startup with a working product is less about spreadsheets and more about structured judgment. A robust approach triangulates three pillars: (1) Replacement Cost New — estimating what it would cost a strong team to rebuild the product and applying a premium for time-to-market and execution risk; (2) Strategic Revenue Synergies — modeling how a buyer could sell the product into their existing customer base, discounting those cash flows, and sharing a portion of that value with the seller; and (3) Market Comparables — checking where similar early-stage companies are being valued. Together, these inputs give founders and buyers a defensible valuation range and a clear narrative for “why this price, why now.”

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